Aggressively Simple Renko - MT4/MT5 Resources
Hello everyone.
I've been working on something for a long time and wanted to start sharing my trades.
For anyone who follows my posts, you will know that I always practice on a real account and I am happy to share the details, the good and the bad. Over the years I had made some pretty decent profits, but nothing that really made me happy.
After finally cracking the offline charts and understanding the vast world in front of me, I have been using Renko averages and combined with a solid plan around trade management and aggressive money management, I believe I have combined the best of all worlds which will maximize profits and eliminate a lot of risk.
My forward testing backtest (haha!), which is basically running forward through a historical chart blindly into the future to replicate actual trades, I'm now getting results purely on the Dow futures market. Current testing shows similar conditions in other markets, with statistics showing the following:
124 transactions
70 winners
2. Breakeven trade winning rate 56%
If you don't think this is particularly impressive...just wait a minute and read on...
Maximum point gain on a single trade - 1410 (i.e. actual points, not 141.1 points...the Dow has no decimal places!)
Maximum spread for a single trade -135
Average profit 321 pips
Average loss is 97 points
The average risk reward is c. 1:3
Total points lost: 5051
Total points earned: 22483
Importantly (frankly, the numbers above are arbitrary for this one...)
Based on Dow futures trading only... using 0.01 lots (equivalent to $0.05 per pip or pip):
Starting balance: $500
Ending balance: $ 4288.25
about. Balance increased by 750%
Here is a plot of equity over time:
This is built up over a long period of time (several years), but this equates to about 1-3 trades per week on average, depending on what is happening on the charts and what is happening during the week, news events, etc.
One last thing, I have a trading plan for this, but it's not optimized yet. The average loss is around 135 pips, but this is based on a set and forget stop loss until an HL or LH occurs (i.e. when the stop loss is moved). In fact, I will test what happens if I move the trade to BE after hitting 50 pips, or 100 pips, or something like that. Data shows that winning trades are not retained and some trades can rise as much as 400 points before turning around and losing money completely. A 100 point... 500 point shift is pretty hard to swallow! However, in my testing, I don't recall any of these trades being winners if the trade went up and past the entry point.
Of course, this is not to say that some trades - for whatever reason, once you get into a trade and lose completely, will work against you... they are not uncommon, but can be easily managed, have a decent risk reward, and can average out as the trade progresses...
When I enter a trade, I will start sharing the trade... This is a very simple approach, but the real power behind money management, and therefore trade management...
My Trade Browser is up and running so you will be able to see all the trades... One thing though is that the Dow futures do not log in the Trade Browser as points, only as currency numbers, although I will keep a running log for myself as I trade!
The average transaction time may range from one day to one month, depending on the progress of the transaction.
If you are interested in learning more, please let me know.
I've been working on something for a long time and wanted to start sharing my trades.
For anyone who follows my posts, you will know that I always practice on a real account and I am happy to share the details, the good and the bad. Over the years I had made some pretty decent profits, but nothing that really made me happy.
After finally cracking the offline charts and understanding the vast world in front of me, I have been using Renko averages and combined with a solid plan around trade management and aggressive money management, I believe I have combined the best of all worlds which will maximize profits and eliminate a lot of risk.
My forward testing backtest (haha!), which is basically running forward through a historical chart blindly into the future to replicate actual trades, I'm now getting results purely on the Dow futures market. Current testing shows similar conditions in other markets, with statistics showing the following:
124 transactions
70 winners
2. Breakeven trade winning rate 56%
If you don't think this is particularly impressive...just wait a minute and read on...
Maximum point gain on a single trade - 1410 (i.e. actual points, not 141.1 points...the Dow has no decimal places!)
Maximum spread for a single trade -135
Average profit 321 pips
Average loss is 97 points
The average risk reward is c. 1:3
Total points lost: 5051
Total points earned: 22483
Importantly (frankly, the numbers above are arbitrary for this one...)
Based on Dow futures trading only... using 0.01 lots (equivalent to $0.05 per pip or pip):
Starting balance: $500
Ending balance: $ 4288.25
about. Balance increased by 750%
Here is a plot of equity over time:
This is built up over a long period of time (several years), but this equates to about 1-3 trades per week on average, depending on what is happening on the charts and what is happening during the week, news events, etc.
One last thing, I have a trading plan for this, but it's not optimized yet. The average loss is around 135 pips, but this is based on a set and forget stop loss until an HL or LH occurs (i.e. when the stop loss is moved). In fact, I will test what happens if I move the trade to BE after hitting 50 pips, or 100 pips, or something like that. Data shows that winning trades are not retained and some trades can rise as much as 400 points before turning around and losing money completely. A 100 point... 500 point shift is pretty hard to swallow! However, in my testing, I don't recall any of these trades being winners if the trade went up and past the entry point.
Of course, this is not to say that some trades - for whatever reason, once you get into a trade and lose completely, will work against you... they are not uncommon, but can be easily managed, have a decent risk reward, and can average out as the trade progresses...
When I enter a trade, I will start sharing the trade... This is a very simple approach, but the real power behind money management, and therefore trade management...
My Trade Browser is up and running so you will be able to see all the trades... One thing though is that the Dow futures do not log in the Trade Browser as points, only as currency numbers, although I will keep a running log for myself as I trade!
The average transaction time may range from one day to one month, depending on the progress of the transaction.
If you are interested in learning more, please let me know.
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