Polyjuice potion - trend following syste
This is a system I created over the weekend. I call it Polyjuice Potion, after the transformation potion in Harry Potter, because its main ingredient is Mr. Mladen, a programming and trading wizard known for his many selfless contributions to the retail community, and this system promises to transform you into someone who, at least on the surface, appears to be just as smart.
I created this system specifically to test the club thread as the first test subject.
Obviously since I just created this system I haven't had a chance to properly test it or even guarantee its performance in live trading. Please do not use it on a real account!
Disclaimer: Use at your own risk; I am not responsible for your loss or inability to read or think, yadda yadda.
If you are curious about how it performs in real trading, feel free to test it and report your findings in the Test Club. I'll be testing it this week and will update this post to report on its real and simulated performance.
This is my first time releasing a system on FF. I have my own way of interpreting it, and it makes sense to me, but I'm not sure it will make sense to you. If something is vague or illogical, ask for clarification. Constructive feedback is always appreciated.
performance
I will update this section, but here is a quick (golden) chart with some theoretical trades based on the rules of the system. The green line is a successful transaction. The red, orange and salmon range is a lost deal. As you can see, the Green Line outnumbers the other lines in both quantity and distance, so it has some promise. Theoretically speaking.
System description and rules
Polyjuice Potion Reason: This system has 4 indicators. Two are trend indicators, one is the volatility indicator (Bollinger Bands) plus Bressert, which shows the trend but also indicates the overbought/oversold condition of the instrument. It's generally not a good idea to use so many metrics in a system, but since this is a test of a test system, the benefit of using so many metrics is to gain insight into the relative performance of each metric, and perhaps single out one or two as overachievers. In this system, trend indicators give entry and exit signals, while bands give exit signals.
There are 3 entry conditions and 8 exit conditions, which reflects the importance of exit relative to entry. In most cases, the most common and important exit is a Bollinger Bands exit, so the most important rule (3.2) is the one that defines when to re-enter a trade after being exited by a band crossover. The setting of this rule is rather arbitrary and optimization may occur there.
Money management is very simple, probably ridiculously simple for this system. Some complexity may be added including adding conditions when there is consistency/inconsistency between trades or indicator signals during ob/os. But for now, figuring out which signals are reliable under which conditions is the first priority.
Time frame: M30
Instruments: Any Indicator: Courtesy of mladen - although he may not have invented these indicators (precise trends perhaps?), he professionally coded them for mq4 and mq5. If you have any background information on these metrics it would be greatly appreciated.
- Perfect Trend Line v.7 (mladen)
- Accuracy Trend 2.2 (mladen)
- Double Smoothed Stochastic Bressert 2.03 (mladen)
- Bollinger Bands (2.8 standard deviation, 20 periods)
Optional: Goertzel browser settings cycle. However, start with the default settings (except as shown above) and optimize from there.
entry:
- Input signals come from any three indicators (!)
- Avoid entering when there are less than 4 hours remaining in the day.
- If the signal candle pierces the Bollinger Bands in the desired direction (or goes unusually high - above 1ATR), wait for confirmation of the wall climb before entering, otherwise, anticipating a rebound, enter only after two confirmation candles - see 3b.
quit:
- Exit based on the signal's instructions.
- When price crosses/exits the correct side of the Bollinger Bands. For a swing exit, wait until price begins to retrace before exiting.
- Band exits and then re-enters if the indicator still supports :
- When the price returns to the correct direction on the next bar. (climbing the wall)
- Second confirmation bar during consolidation. so
- Price will bounce off the third channel in the wrong direction,
- Eventually it will return, and a bar (usually a large one) will confirm the return trend,
- Then one or two opposing bars (usually smaller) may add to the consolidation. If there are more than 2, reset the count.
- Then a second confirmation bar will be added to the integration,
- At or after this bar, you re-enter the trade in the direction specified by the indicator. (See Figure 1)
Fig. 1 Fig. 1 - Notice that all 3 indicators are still flashing short signals on entry.
- Note: PTL has 3 modes - Buy/Sell/Neutral. When a trade is profitable, exit neutral. If an unprofitable trade turns neutral, wait until it turns buy/sell. If it turns into an opposite signal, exit, if it reconfirms the initial signal, stay in the trade (but do not add a new position).
- Exit a profitable trade if the trade crosses the wrong side of the Bollinger Bands midpoint line (moving average). If the price crosses and closes in the correct direction, re-enter.
- If the price is very close to the Bollinger Bands, then closes sharply away from the Bollinger Bands on the next candle (the rally fails).
- If the retracement exceeds 75%, exit the profitable trade (breaks 1ATR)
- Regardless, exit all positions over the weekend.
Stop Loss: Virtual only, set the alert at 2x the distance of the PTL point from the open of the bar it appears on (I assume this is a PSAR?), or at +20% of the third band if the signal has not occurred at that point.
MM: Ideally we would use the Hurst cycle to determine which cycle quadrant we are currently in and use that to identify the underlying trend and then trade larger positions as the trend accelerates, but since this would triple the length of this explanation we will only use the H4 timeframe to look at the dominant trend. If you look at gold right now, you'll see a clear downward trend. The money management rules are very simple.
- For trades against the dominant trend, trade 0.05 lots per $1000 of balance
- For trades in line with the dominant trend, trade 0.1 lot per $1000 of balance.
- Update: I should mention that with this version of the system you can make up to 3 trades at a time. Therefore, the maximum leverage used is 0.3 lots per $1000 of balance and the equity risk is approximately 6% based on the size of the s/l. However, this system does not use grids, martingales, or other inherently risky strategies. On the other hand, the stop loss is quite loose, so a failed trade would be significant if it occurred during a trend reversal. For larger accounts or more conservative traders, simply lower the ratio. You can use 0.01 per $1000 or some multiple of that as many people do.
It should be fine now. If I've missed something important, please let me know. I will update this with simulation and forwarding demo test results.
Update 1: Added template files and goertzel browser indicator - please note that goertzel does not work well with templates. It's better to delete it and add it back to the chart.
Update 2: Replaced DSS with the correct version and templates with probably cleaner files.


















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