TSF Mavin | Foreign exchange EA download-MT4/MT5 resources-MetaTrader 5 resources
I've been working on a new system since late October. It requires a lot of work, so if you're looking for a complete black box, holy grail...this isn't it. I post here because I've learned a lot from other people here. Thanks to the generosity and additional skills of other posters here (price action and support and resistance based on James 16), I have more than doubled my demo account size since October 27th.
What I'm about to cover contributes greatly to this record, but if I only used it, I'd be losing money. However, I think it has a lot of potential because the winners far outnumber the losers. Again, that's not enough to make the business profitable. By almost any measure, my risk-reward ratio was completely unacceptable. However, I've been using it in a demo account so I'm not worried. You won't have to worry if you play it on a demo account...if you're stupid enough to run it on a real account, you're a big fool.
Having said that, I have had success using this system to generally find safe market entry opportunities. When the market occasionally turns and bites me (taking my stop), I now know I need to go to work one day, but the market does oblige these days. Whether it's getting back in, running the other way, or getting stuck in a zone, these are the days where I have to try other ways to make up my points... but it seems like I'm finally succeeding at it. It’s just that I can’t pay that much attention to the market every day. So there are usually a few days every two to three weeks when the market doesn't cooperate with the system. As you will see, this kills it as a system. But I'm hoping that some smart people here might be able to help come up with some filters that can better limit trading on losing days while retaining all or most of the winning days and maybe turn them into real winners.
So let's get started.
I'm trading on the GPBJPY 30 minute chart.
Use the provided TSF indicator. I've included one for cycles 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 - you can set the color to whatever you like, but make sure cycle 19 is different from the others.
I have also attached the 20-period EMA of the closing price.
Please do not trade any gold bars between midnight and 1am GMT. However, you will start your analysis from the 1 AM bar close.
The TSF lines must all be above or below the 1 AM bar. If they don't, you can't trade until they do. This filter is only active at the beginning of the trading day. Once it is cleared at the closing price bar, it no longer applies to the closing price of that bar.
TSF 19 must be the highest TSF and above the 20 EMA, and the bar must close flat or upward for a valid buy trade setup to be formed. Instead, it must be the lowest TSF below the 20 EMA, and the bar must close flat or fall for a valid sell setup to form.
When the setup is confirmed, a buy stop or sell stop is set based on the trend specified by the 19 TSF.
I place a buy order 1 pip above the previous qualifying bar's close, plus the spread (I think it's 6 pips with my broker IBFX). When the previous bar meets the conditions, a sell order is placed 1 pip below the lowest price.
If the entry doesn't get triggered and a better entry bar forms later, I'll make a change. I wouldn't pursue it because you'll probably end up being executed for losing money.
My take profit is 20 pips. My stop loss is 51 pips. As a general rule, I only look for the first qualifying trade of the day. If I lose, I know I have to find another way to win it back. So far, I haven't had a single failed day given my fallback, and it's impossible for me to try to explain that. I risk a total of 6% on a trade. I'm testing. You can use any settings you want.
Maybe some other TSF settings, or some other EMA settings might suit you better... or some other filters... stop loss, take profit... timeframe... etc.
I'm simply saying that the pick rate every month is about 80% or higher, which is pretty easy. I understand that more losses appear to occur on the announcement day of the pound exchange rate and when the Bank of England issues notes. The interest rate statement is released on the Thursday of the first full week of each month and the meeting minutes/minutes are released on the Wednesday two weeks later. I think the trades on those days would be around a 50% loss (so you can still win...but the odds are not in your favor). Other failed days are harder to pin down. They look normal a lot of the time. A smaller early trading range does not mean fewer wins. In fact, winning in that environment seems easier.
I'd like to post some pictures to make it clearer, but it might take a day or two to do that.
If anyone wants to try making an EA that can observe and place initial orders, I would be very grateful. It might also be nice to build an indicator that you can attach and show where qualifying trades occur and the results. This way we can visually see the effect of changing the settings of the current indicator set and perhaps get a better idea of where improvements can be made.
Let me know what you think. Like I said, I'll try to post something later.
I also looked at other pairings for this purpose. It may work with other TSF and EMA settings, but I've only tried these on GBPJPY. I'm relatively familiar with this pair. You should feel free to try it.
The key here is that we are not trying to catch the start of a trend, we are just trying to find a safe entry point. That's what these indicators do. Sometimes the signal travels far on the move and that's okay... isn't it.
What I'm about to cover contributes greatly to this record, but if I only used it, I'd be losing money. However, I think it has a lot of potential because the winners far outnumber the losers. Again, that's not enough to make the business profitable. By almost any measure, my risk-reward ratio was completely unacceptable. However, I've been using it in a demo account so I'm not worried. You won't have to worry if you play it on a demo account...if you're stupid enough to run it on a real account, you're a big fool.
Having said that, I have had success using this system to generally find safe market entry opportunities. When the market occasionally turns and bites me (taking my stop), I now know I need to go to work one day, but the market does oblige these days. Whether it's getting back in, running the other way, or getting stuck in a zone, these are the days where I have to try other ways to make up my points... but it seems like I'm finally succeeding at it. It’s just that I can’t pay that much attention to the market every day. So there are usually a few days every two to three weeks when the market doesn't cooperate with the system. As you will see, this kills it as a system. But I'm hoping that some smart people here might be able to help come up with some filters that can better limit trading on losing days while retaining all or most of the winning days and maybe turn them into real winners.
So let's get started.
I'm trading on the GPBJPY 30 minute chart.
Use the provided TSF indicator. I've included one for cycles 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 - you can set the color to whatever you like, but make sure cycle 19 is different from the others.
I have also attached the 20-period EMA of the closing price.
Please do not trade any gold bars between midnight and 1am GMT. However, you will start your analysis from the 1 AM bar close.
The TSF lines must all be above or below the 1 AM bar. If they don't, you can't trade until they do. This filter is only active at the beginning of the trading day. Once it is cleared at the closing price bar, it no longer applies to the closing price of that bar.
TSF 19 must be the highest TSF and above the 20 EMA, and the bar must close flat or upward for a valid buy trade setup to be formed. Instead, it must be the lowest TSF below the 20 EMA, and the bar must close flat or fall for a valid sell setup to form.
When the setup is confirmed, a buy stop or sell stop is set based on the trend specified by the 19 TSF.
I place a buy order 1 pip above the previous qualifying bar's close, plus the spread (I think it's 6 pips with my broker IBFX). When the previous bar meets the conditions, a sell order is placed 1 pip below the lowest price.
If the entry doesn't get triggered and a better entry bar forms later, I'll make a change. I wouldn't pursue it because you'll probably end up being executed for losing money.
My take profit is 20 pips. My stop loss is 51 pips. As a general rule, I only look for the first qualifying trade of the day. If I lose, I know I have to find another way to win it back. So far, I haven't had a single failed day given my fallback, and it's impossible for me to try to explain that. I risk a total of 6% on a trade. I'm testing. You can use any settings you want.
Maybe some other TSF settings, or some other EMA settings might suit you better... or some other filters... stop loss, take profit... timeframe... etc.
I'm simply saying that the pick rate every month is about 80% or higher, which is pretty easy. I understand that more losses appear to occur on the announcement day of the pound exchange rate and when the Bank of England issues notes. The interest rate statement is released on the Thursday of the first full week of each month and the meeting minutes/minutes are released on the Wednesday two weeks later. I think the trades on those days would be around a 50% loss (so you can still win...but the odds are not in your favor). Other failed days are harder to pin down. They look normal a lot of the time. A smaller early trading range does not mean fewer wins. In fact, winning in that environment seems easier.
I'd like to post some pictures to make it clearer, but it might take a day or two to do that.
If anyone wants to try making an EA that can observe and place initial orders, I would be very grateful. It might also be nice to build an indicator that you can attach and show where qualifying trades occur and the results. This way we can visually see the effect of changing the settings of the current indicator set and perhaps get a better idea of where improvements can be made.
Let me know what you think. Like I said, I'll try to post something later.
I also looked at other pairings for this purpose. It may work with other TSF and EMA settings, but I've only tried these on GBPJPY. I'm relatively familiar with this pair. You should feel free to try it.
The key here is that we are not trying to catch the start of a trend, we are just trying to find a safe entry point. That's what these indicators do. Sometimes the signal travels far on the move and that's okay... isn't it.
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