US News Scale-Out Strategy - MT4/MT5 Resources
This was an idea I considered while trading GBP/USD at the time. After seeing the New York session breakout strategy, I brought it back from my old notebook. While this worked out well for the time, it could just be luck. It has not been backtested and can certainly be changed for a smarter implementation. But just for fun, I'm going to stick to my very mysterious rules and see what happens. why not?
Disclaimer: This is not a proven system. Don't invest real money in this. I am a bored trader looking to satisfy the gambling side of my personality. I'm just testing this for fun.
Remember - this may fail completely
Okay... Rules:
1. Check the news calendar. If there is no breaking news between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. ET, set the box to 8 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. ET.
2. If there is news at 8:30 and no major news after that, set the box to 8-9:00.
3. 10 o’clock…set the box to 10-10:30
4. Another point... I don't like mornings without news, so I reduce the lot size to 5 and try scalping 5 points. That's it...no swing is too risky for this type of trade. If scalping 5 pips with a big stop loss is too risky for you, you're probably smarter than me. We'll see how it goes.
*Basically, we start the meeting at 8:00. After the last big news of the morning, we like to give it half an hour to settle in and relax.
At this point, place 10 lots (or 10 units - do your own money management) in the gap of the box. Set your TP (Take Profit) at 5, 10, 15 and 20 away from the box breakout price. One hour after the breakthrough time, another 1 lot was profited, leaving 5 positions. For example. If your breakout box is 8-10:30 but the trade doesn't trigger until 11:15... take profit around 12:15 (or whatever time works for your schedule)... but about an hour later.
*If within an hour, the price falls back inside the box, then let the trade continue until your stop loss is reached, or close the position outside the box, you can take profit on one more lot and set the remaining five lots as breakeven.
Set the remaining 5 lots as breakeven... (stop loss at the price you bought or sold.) Let the trade take its course. As we catch trends, I'll explain how I approach these.
Stop loss... 50 or the other side of the box +10... whatever is greater.
I know, I know...it doesn't help us determine expectations or risk/reward. I just wanted to try it out and see what I discovered and learned. Like I said, I'm bored.
So, since I'm probably terrible at explaining this, I'm going to look back at the previous week and explain what would have happened each day if we were already testing this strategy. If you're interested, I suggest you follow along to get a better idea of what I'm doing.
9/8 – No big news…set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7585 – 1.7655…break three bars (M30) and go long to 1.7667.
Result... +25 , on the scalp. As you can see, this is risky because it falls apart pretty quickly after that.
9/9 – Homes for sale at 10:00… Set the box for 8-10:30 – 1.7570 – 1.7637… Break the next bar and take profits at 5, 10, 15 and 20. An hour later the bar closed at 1.7661, thus adding an additional 20 pips (taking into account the 4 pip difference). Move the stop loss to breakeven and a few hours later we are stopped out on the remaining five lands.
Result… +70
9/10 – No big news...set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7551 – 1.7592...break both bars (M30) and go long to 1.7622.
Result... +25 , on the scalp. As you can see, this is risky again as it breaks out very quickly thereafter.
9/11 - Trade balance at 8:30... Set box at 8-9:00 --- 1.7527 - 1.7588... Break in less than an hour. We took profits at 5, 10, 15 and 20, but the price fell back into the box. In this case, you will wait and see if your remaining lots will be stopped out, or if you can make more profit. Great...the next M30 block actually closed below the box at 1.7501 and we were able to book an additional 22 pips and set the remaining lot size to break even. These batches will be stopped later in the afternoon.
Result... +72
9/12 – UofM Consumer Sent. (Last News of the Morning)…sets the box at 8-10:30 --- 1.7651 – 1.7815…breakout for the bulls in the next half hour. 5, 10, 15, and 20 lots were booked, and an additional 101 lots were added an hour later when the bar chart closed at 1.7920. Currently, the remaining 5 lots are at breakeven stop loss. This is when this system gets interesting. We might get lucky and catch the trend now, or we might get stopped out immediately next week. If we get really lucky and the pound continues north, I'll update you on how I handle the "runners".
Result... +151
*So this week we booked 343 points...that's $343 if you use mini lots. That may not be enough for the risks involved. It depends on your bank account.
I look forward to updating this experiment every day. If I have to travel, I'll do whatever I can.
Disclaimer: This is not a proven system. Don't invest real money in this. I am a bored trader looking to satisfy the gambling side of my personality. I'm just testing this for fun.
Remember - this may fail completely
Okay... Rules:
1. Check the news calendar. If there is no breaking news between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. ET, set the box to 8 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. ET.
2. If there is news at 8:30 and no major news after that, set the box to 8-9:00.
3. 10 o’clock…set the box to 10-10:30
4. Another point... I don't like mornings without news, so I reduce the lot size to 5 and try scalping 5 points. That's it...no swing is too risky for this type of trade. If scalping 5 pips with a big stop loss is too risky for you, you're probably smarter than me. We'll see how it goes.
*Basically, we start the meeting at 8:00. After the last big news of the morning, we like to give it half an hour to settle in and relax.
At this point, place 10 lots (or 10 units - do your own money management) in the gap of the box. Set your TP (Take Profit) at 5, 10, 15 and 20 away from the box breakout price. One hour after the breakthrough time, another 1 lot was profited, leaving 5 positions. For example. If your breakout box is 8-10:30 but the trade doesn't trigger until 11:15... take profit around 12:15 (or whatever time works for your schedule)... but about an hour later.
*If within an hour, the price falls back inside the box, then let the trade continue until your stop loss is reached, or close the position outside the box, you can take profit on one more lot and set the remaining five lots as breakeven.
Set the remaining 5 lots as breakeven... (stop loss at the price you bought or sold.) Let the trade take its course. As we catch trends, I'll explain how I approach these.
Stop loss... 50 or the other side of the box +10... whatever is greater.
I know, I know...it doesn't help us determine expectations or risk/reward. I just wanted to try it out and see what I discovered and learned. Like I said, I'm bored.
So, since I'm probably terrible at explaining this, I'm going to look back at the previous week and explain what would have happened each day if we were already testing this strategy. If you're interested, I suggest you follow along to get a better idea of what I'm doing.
9/8 – No big news…set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7585 – 1.7655…break three bars (M30) and go long to 1.7667.
Result... +25 , on the scalp. As you can see, this is risky because it falls apart pretty quickly after that.
9/9 – Homes for sale at 10:00… Set the box for 8-10:30 – 1.7570 – 1.7637… Break the next bar and take profits at 5, 10, 15 and 20. An hour later the bar closed at 1.7661, thus adding an additional 20 pips (taking into account the 4 pip difference). Move the stop loss to breakeven and a few hours later we are stopped out on the remaining five lands.
Result… +70
9/10 – No big news...set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7551 – 1.7592...break both bars (M30) and go long to 1.7622.
Result... +25 , on the scalp. As you can see, this is risky again as it breaks out very quickly thereafter.
9/11 - Trade balance at 8:30... Set box at 8-9:00 --- 1.7527 - 1.7588... Break in less than an hour. We took profits at 5, 10, 15 and 20, but the price fell back into the box. In this case, you will wait and see if your remaining lots will be stopped out, or if you can make more profit. Great...the next M30 block actually closed below the box at 1.7501 and we were able to book an additional 22 pips and set the remaining lot size to break even. These batches will be stopped later in the afternoon.
Result... +72
9/12 – UofM Consumer Sent. (Last News of the Morning)…sets the box at 8-10:30 --- 1.7651 – 1.7815…breakout for the bulls in the next half hour. 5, 10, 15, and 20 lots were booked, and an additional 101 lots were added an hour later when the bar chart closed at 1.7920. Currently, the remaining 5 lots are at breakeven stop loss. This is when this system gets interesting. We might get lucky and catch the trend now, or we might get stopped out immediately next week. If we get really lucky and the pound continues north, I'll update you on how I handle the "runners".
Result... +151
*So this week we booked 343 points...that's $343 if you use mini lots. That may not be enough for the risks involved. It depends on your bank account.
I look forward to updating this experiment every day. If I have to travel, I'll do whatever I can.
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