WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the h)

Ok, very simple trading system (TS)... for WTI crude oil market

It’s about surfing the (downward) trend…
Looks like it's slippery atm...even the Saudi situation can't hold out for long.

The trend (at least until late October) is believed to be (according to my prediction) to the south:

Control parameters:
My price prediction model of over 10 years is basically the same, at least its core is the same, regardless of the market of application... but since it is used most on EURUSD... I also use it to evaluate its quality/accuracy based on that chart... so the closer the price is to the purple line (the Merlin line - the output of this model, for this market), the better... Currently, the price is below the line that is in sync with the downtrend direction, but I don't like it being below 100 multiple points... I would prefer it to be closer, ideally swinging around that line, even though it was predicted on July 25, 2019... it keeps recalculating, which means it should remain until the end of the year (of October)...

Additional information to help you:
Correlation.. Euro to Oil.. or Currency to Oil

1. http://www.stockexshadow.com/crude-o...relation-chart
2. https://www.investopedia.com/article...orrelation.asp

TP (don't be greedy, but it's also variable and depends on daily moves, liquidity, etc...)..
But I would say that the change of 20-50PIP at that time was very good.
Leverage: I would consider 10-20:1 leverage...again, depends on market volume, volatility...
SL: I don't want to get into this religious issue... but if the market indicates that a certain price needs some wider "turning radius" before reaching its "final destination", I might take a higher risk than the famous 1:1
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Questions before entering the transaction:

1. Does the trend still seem to be heading south or "is there anything unusual"?
2. Any special news/events?
3. Is the volume/liquidity good?
4. Good "part of the day" (meaning not STALL, not SPIKE)?
5. What is the best target price, depending on daily (past/projected) movement, as part of this?

The situation at the moment is this...

1. The southern trend appears to be confirmed again, both trajectory and extrapolation tests are available
2. TP 50 looks good
3. Best time of day (lower volume), skipping evening, reassessing in morning
4. Some rally atm, would allow this to happen before the shorts.
5. Control parameters (EUR/USD model prediction and reality): bad/optimal, 100+ points offline...

Decision so far: wait a few more days and see how it goes...don't jump in..

Will track this closely and decide by the end of the week if a dedicated TE (TradeExplorer) should be opened/posted/linked to this thread so you can see it in practice.
All of this can be automated, I just have to manually place it atm...