Shorting Forex Factory members - MT4/MT5 resources

No fancy metrics. There is no price action voodoo. Just do things that are contrary to the crowd. This will almost certainly work best for those who can hold trades for days or even weeks.

If you go to the Trading section of the website, you will see that there is a section that outlines the positions of all Forex Factory members who have Trade Explorer running on their live accounts. It shows the number of traders long/short an instrument and the number of long and short lots.
The data is similar to what you see on the Dukascopy sentiment chart, generally the bull/bear bias is about the same, but the percentages are slightly different. Unfortunately, there are no currencies for XAUUSD or OIL.

One thing you'll notice is that (apparently) most traders have not heard of the phrase "the trend is your friend." Or at least, they don't believe it.
The strategy is simple - trade with whatever most traders do in the Positions/Live Account section. Let's take a look at the current situation.

EURUSD Currently around 60% of traders are short the euro. This is despite the fact that it has been trending strongly bullish since last November, with only a few months of decline in December 2016 before that. In my opinion, MN, W1, D1, H4, H1, M30 and M15 are bullish. Only the M5 is questionable. Of course, it could drop soon, but so far traders who have been waiting have lost -4.5% (according to FXFactory). The trading loss rate for euro shorts is almost three times that of longs. When I looked at the long/short composition yesterday when the euro was surging, the number of longs actually decreased. In other words, the more painful the transaction, the more people involved in it. Human nature or business nature?
Conclusion: Go long the euro.

GBP/USD Almost everything I write about fiber optics applies to cable. Go long because 60% of FF members are short. This time their loss rate was four times that of the bulls.

The situation for USDJPYJPY is a little more complicated, as its trend during D1 and up is not clear. It has been in a range but has weakened over the past few days as the US dollar has weakened. What do FF traders think? Well, they think it's a good long trade, although it's closer than cable/fiber, with only 58% bullish. Neither bears nor bulls saw any positive returns here, as both lost -1.9% and -2.5% respectively when trading the Japanese yen. “One week down, then another two weeks of correction – yeah, let’s buy me some,” seems to be the thought process. Well, maybe they're right, because it's already showing signs of life. Furthermore, FF's loss on this trade was only twice as much as the winning trade, and they actually won 2x more than the JPY shorts. However, this strategy requires us to do the opposite of what the crowd does. Short the Japanese Yen .

USDCHF is even more certain about this – 65% are USD long. Perhaps this is a reaction to the SNB's statement that intervention in currency appreciation is always an option. We all still remember 2015, right? Let's take a look at the chart. Well, historically it is a narrow range and there is no obvious bias against D1. But looking at Q4, it's clearly bearish and has been falling sharply throughout the month. Clearly, FF members are expecting a reversal back to the top of the range, and they are probably right, that will happen. But not before they lose their shirts. Short USD/CHF.

USDCAD This is an interesting situation, the long/short ratio is normal - about 56% are long, but the funding is unusually unbalanced, with 80% of hands USDCAD being bullish. Does anyone know why? This cannot be an arbitrage trade. This is a terrible arbitrage trade. Please give me some internet learning! So, how does the 80% bull trade in USD/CAD fare? Well, surprisingly, USD/CAD has been strongly bearish since last spring and is still falling after a brief rebound. Loonie shorts lost three times as much as their long counterparts, although the bears only managed to break even. I know what you are thinking. NAFTA! trump card! Hey, we get it. He understands the art of trading. His eyes are terrifying, this CAD PM would be perfect for a Korean boy band. Nonetheless, we would hold the Canadian dollar for the long term, which would mean shorting USD/CAD .

AUD/USD If you're short USD/CAD, long AUD/USD is basically the same thing, now you have excess correlation risk, but hey, the FF member is such a strong (and interesting) contrarian signal that we'll just get down to what's going on. Despite the wild bullishness of the Australian dollar from M30 to D1, only 39% are bullish on the Australian dollar. Australian dollar shorts lost four times as much as longs, but strangely, their profits were twice as big as longs. I should take more statistics classes to understand how it works. Maybe this is the carry trade effect? Bulls stay in trades longer and therefore win less often? What matters is that they managed to make a meager 0.2% profit, compared to -2.0% for the shorts. Go long AUD/USD .

NZD/USD is the same as AUD/USD, except it's almost comical (or tragic?) that the New Zealand bears are losing. -8.3%!

GBPJPY has been clearly bullish since May 2016, so which side do you expect FF members to be on? You guessed it! Da Xiong. Although it was very close to flat, the bulls made an impressive 9.2% profit on this trade. Go long GBPJPY.

So I thought I would trade in a demo account and update in a month or two. I don't expect this to generate a quick profit.
I wish you prosperity.