Scalping the EUR at the European open
Note: This strategy works best when EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are trending up or down. This strategy is not good when the Euro is moving sideways.
For best results, three basic criteria need to be synchronized. They are:
- For long trades, the Euro is performing strongly against all other currencies. (Weakest for short trades).
- All selected EUR currency pairs are moving in the same direction.
- The 7 AM candles of every selected currency pair on the 15 M time frame are pointing in the same direction (up for longs, down for shorts).
Here are the strategic steps to follow:
- Check currency strength at 6:30 AM (GMT) using a simple H/L leading list, as shown in the example below (EUR pair in blue). If EUR/USD is in the upper quadrant of the list and has been rising since midnight (GMT), it would indicate a long position. If the pair is in the lower quadrant, it indicates a short position. The best result is when the EUR currency pairs are grouped together at the top (for long trades) or at the bottom (for short trades). Important Tip 1 : If the price reaches new highs or significant resistance, the likelihood of a price pullback is very high. Watch the 7 AM candle for a short signal.
- Check the main trend using the 100 MA on the 15 minute chart. Use 20 MA, 50 MA and 100 MA moving averages and daily pivot points. Make sure the four pairs you choose move in sync ( they all have the same shape and trend) . If the trend is up, go long; if the trend is down, go short. The best results are when the price is above the daily pivot points, the 100 MA and the 50 MA (for long trades) and below these indicators (for short trades).
- Important Tip 2 : If you cannot identify a strong trend or the price is moving sideways - stay away.
- Waiting for 07:00 - 07:15 am candles. If the candle points in the same direction as the trend of all four currency pairs, trade in that direction. IMPORTANT TIP 3 : If all four pairs of directions for the 7 AM candle do not agree - stay away. Don't trade.
- Typically, around 7 AM, a bullish bar appears for long trades and a bearish bar appears for short trades. This is your main indicator. You can capture it with a stop loss order. If you miss it, wait for the callback. I have learned to call this 7 AM bar the ' truth ' bar. Regardless of what may be happening with any other indicator, this 7 AM bar will point in the direction of the upcoming move, but only if it agrees with all pairs of your choice . The simple strategy is to enter your position in the direction it points. Which pair you choose to trade is up to you. I personally trade all four selected pairs when synchronicity is good.
- After the 7 AM bar, there is usually a pullback or pause until around 7:30 AM ( sometimes as late as 07:45 AM ), at which point the trend will resume to peak at 08:00 AM.
- You can err on the side of caution and place a buy stop order above the last bar of the pullback on the 15 M chart, or a sell stop order below the bearish rising pullback. Retracements can be a bit scary if you use the 5 M time frame, but consider the action of the pitch. There is a similar movement of bringing your arms back before throwing. The stop loss order will eliminate any risk if the pullback turns out to be a reversal, which is unlikely to happen if you do follow the direction of the 7 AM "Truth" bar.
- I use a 25 pip target and a 20 pip stop loss for scalping trades.
- There's never a time when there's a high-impact news release pending or you 'll be blocked by a whipsaw.
The perfect setup for this strategy won't happen every day, but over time I will post examples of good trades that meet the setup criteria, as well as examples of when to exit. Any questions you may have will be answered just by looking at the posted chart.
Polite notice: Please check past charts for answers to your questions rather than cluttering the thread with consecutive questions.
Thank you for your interest, I hope and believe this topic will be useful to everyone. ( This is only true if the rules of strategy are followed ). If it works for you, please vote in the poll and pass it on to others.
I wish everyone successful trading.
The chart on the 18th shows a strong list of 4 pairs, but a strong GBP means lack of momentum, but the second chart on the 17th shows good momentum, and a closer look at the "Truth" bar at 7 AM.


















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