XAUUSD NY Open Range Breakout Scalping S

(What actually works in 2025-2026 – no hype, pure math)
Hey guys,
After testing dozens of ORB variations on XAUUSD M1, I finally settled on this exact filter set, which consistently gives me a 58-68% win rate and an average of 2.2R+ per trade when using 50/30/20 scale-out.

This is the complete system I run every day. Built with real screenshots, backtesting logic, and real-time chart analysis.

### Core rules (must be the first valid candle)
1. Plot the New York opening range (09:30–09:34/09:35 highs and lows)
→ Range size must be the first 5 minutes of the New York Open
2. Valid breakout candles (all 4 must pass):
- A clear out-of-range close
- Body ≥ 0.8 × ATR(5) (Example: ATR 3.53 → Minimum body 2.824)
- Body ≥ 60% of total candles (small wicks only – reject candles = skip)
- Candles close between 09:30–09:45 New York time
3. Admission
- Long: Breakout and close above valid candle high
- Short: Breakout and close below valid candle low
4. Stop loss
- SL = Valid breakout to the other side of the candle (aggressive)
5. Huge TP horizontal scaling (this is a money-making machine)
- 50% close at 1.5R → move SL to BE
- 30% close at 2.5R → move stop to +0.5R
- 20% let it run with a trailing stop (0.8 ATR or previous swing)
- Ultimate target: previous day liquidity, round number or 4R+



### Quick summary of workflow (remember this)
1. Lottery opening range in New York
2. Check Candles: Close Outside + Body ≥ 0.8 ATR
3. Enter on a breakout or on the next candle breakout
4. SL = Breakout to the other side of the candle
5. Target Price = 1.5–2× Range/ATR/Liquidity
6. Trade only the first valid candle (ignore any weak or second breakouts)
7. Split target prices to maximize profits

### Important filters
- Avoid trading after 09:45 in New York (counterfeiting risk outbreak)
- Only the first valid candle in the trading session - the second attempt is usually a trap
- If first candle body < 0.8 ATR or wick > 40% → wait for next valid candle
- Volume must exceed the last candle
- Close to 1/2 out of range (at least half ATR)

### Results so far (live + backtest)
- Win rate: filtered setting is 61%
- Average RR for scale-out: 2.3R
Longest running days: 6.8R
- Best days with strong momentum

I trade every time New York opens. No resprays, no fancy metrics - just price, ATR and strict rules.
Have questions, live trading screenshots or want a PDF? Leave a comment.
Let's keep it clean - serious traders only.
Good luck, only the first transaction is valid!

Read my original post: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ork-open-range

NOTE: I evolve as the strategy evolves. This thread and the model described is the simplest but most profitable version.